Monthly Market Report - September 2017
1st September 2017
With commentary from David Stevenson
Although global stockmarkets have had a strong run of late my suspicion is that is that equities might take a breather fairly soon, not least because global growth doesnít look like itís going to pick up any more speed until President Trump decides what to do about government spending and taxes.
Itís also likely that the central banks are preparing for a winding down of some monetary stimulus measures. As one fund manager recently put it to me "the onus is now on equities to justify their strong performance after a spectacular run, with suitably strong earnings numbersĒ. Needless to say, market expectations are running a tad high, especially in the US Ė with a real possibility of disappointment. The consensus view on US earnings implies real GDP growth is in excess of 3 per cent Ė well over levels not seen over the last decade. On balance, this suggests room for some caution, but certainly not panic.
Yet it is worth quoting at length from a recent note to
investors by the Ruffer Investment Company. Itís a widely followed listed
investment fund within the wealth space and the current managers Hamish Baillie
and Steve Russell have always taken a more cautious view of current financial
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